Many people are surprised by seemingly high support for Ruto in Central Kenya or Kikuyuland. There are at least seven factors involved;
- Many Kikuyus are tired of being called traitors who can’t support a person from another tribe. This is the traitor factor
- There are many people who feel that Jubilee owes Ruto a lot hence it is payback time. This is the debt factor. The attempt by Uhuru to shortchange Ruto isn’t selling easily since as far as Jubilee is concerned there’s nothing Ruto has done to warrant that. This is why some are desperate enough to create stories that Ruto was importing arms to depose his boss which is absolute nonsense
- The Luo-Kikuyu divisions run deep and can’t be reversed by two individuals shaking hands. Uhuru called Raila all sorts of names and accused him of many ills. He can’t just wake up and sanitize him among his supporters. This is the hatred factor. I was recently caught up in an incident involving Kikuyus and some Western Kenya guys. The way one of the young Kikuyu lady spoke shocked me. The idea that tribal animosity is powered by a switch you can just turn on or off is absurd
- There’s a lot of disquiet in Central Kenya regarding economic hardships. People are beginning to place the blame on Uhuru as the person elected to be in charge of the country. This is the economy factor that no one can wish away. The economy will definitely affect 2022 politics. Ruto just needs to sell the fake narrative that all was well with Jubilee economics till Raila happened
- There are also the Rift valley issue. There are those who are afraid of the consequences of shortchanging Ruto. This is the fear factor
- Ruto has been campaigning since 2013. Those efforts have their impact too e.g. the church and women fundraisers. This is the persistence factor
- The attempt to ensure Ruto doesn’t stand in 2022 is turning him into a victim rather than the perpetrator he is of Jubilee’s ills. This is the sympathy factor
